The trends listed below were considered in the development of the following employment forecast for Flagler and Volusia counties. These trends will have a significant impact on the structure of the two counties’ economy over the next decade.

Employment Outlook
• The expected slowdown in population growth will result in weaker labor force growth, causing overall employment levels to grow more slowly.
• All industries will continue to rely more on outsourcing contractors, temporary labor, and leased employment to meet their labor needs.
• The state’s industry employment will continue its shift towards the service producing sector and away from the goods-producing sector; however, the growth rate of the service producing sector will be much slower than during the previous decade.
• The emphasis on better-educated and higher-skilled workers will endure as our economy continues to be more knowledge-based and less production-based.

Advances in Technology
• Technological advances in manufacturing, communications and computers, along with greater use of the Internet, will continue to improve the efficiency of business.
• Replacing outdated methods as new technologies are developed will eliminate many low-tech jobs, but will create jobs that require workers with a higher level of training.

Goods-Producing Sector
• Employment Growth within the goods-producing sector of the economy will be slow, accounting for only 5.6 percent of the new jobs through 2009.
• Construction will lead the goods-producing industries in both total number of new jobs added and job growth rate; but will still trail every major division of the service-producing sector in both growth categories.

Construction
• Construction employment will grow much more slowly than the average growth rate for all industries, primarily due to the slowdown in population growth.
• Special trade construction contractors (plumbers, electricians, roofers, etc.) will account for nearly 85% of the new construction jobs as general contractors continue to subcontract their construction work.

Manufacturing
• Manufacturing will grow more slowly than any other major industry division except mining which will decline; however, this employment growth rate is slightly stronger than the previous forecast for this industry.
• Greater investments in manufacturing technologies combined with fierce competition from the global economy will continue to result in greater industrial production, but will also result in slow growth of manufacturing jobs.
• Fifteen of the twenty detailed manufacturing industries are expected to grow in employment through 2009. The fabricated metal products industry is expected to gain the most jobs among them.
• Of the ten industries losing the most jobs, five are in manufacturing
• Among the declining manufacturing industries, nearly sixty-eight percent of the jobs lost will be in the apparel and textile products industry, as lower skilled, labor intensive production is done in places where labor costs are lower.

Service-Producing Sector
• The growth of employment in Florida will continue to be highly concentrated among the service-producing industries. This sector will account for almost 90 percent of the new jobs created this decade.
• Within the service producing sector, the trade and services industries combined will account for nearly four out of five new service producing jobs and will account for almost 70 percent of all new jobs.

Services
• Services will continue to be the fastest growing major industry division and will generate the most new jobs through 2009; in fact, half of the new jobs created during this time will be in the services industry.
• Seven of the ten fastest-growing industries this decade will be from the services industry division.
• Business services and health services combined will account for almost two-thirds of the new jobs in this major division.
• Business services will be the fastest-growing major industry group and will generate the most new jobs as employers continue to rely more on outsourcing, contractors, temporary labor, and leased employment to meet their labor needs.
• Overall population growth, the rise in the elderly and school-age populations, increases in tourism, and changes in consumer lifestyles will fuel strong job growth for other industry sectors in services.

Government
• Government employment in Florida is expected to grow slower than the average growth rate for all industries and have a much slower growth rate than the previous forecast.
• Federal government will be the slowest-growing segment of government and will generate the fewest new jobs in this major division. The unpredictability of defense and space exploration spending, as well as small but widespread employment declines due to attrition in many federal agencies, are the primary reasons for the slowed employment growth in this sector of government.
• Smaller employment gains are projected for state government as growth among state education institutions is offset by efforts to privatize government services where possible.
• Local government employment will continue to be the fastest-growing sector of government, accounting for more than four out of every five new government jobs in Florida. Strong growth in public schools will continue to account for the majority of new local government jobs.

Local industries projected to gain the most new jobs over the next decade are: Health Services, Local Government, Business Services, Eating and Drinking Places, Food Stores, Hotels and Other Lodging Places, Social Services, Special Trade Contractors, Membership Organizations, Wholesale Trade, Durable Goods, Miscellaneous Retail Stores, Auto Dealers and Service Stations, Real Estate.

Some of the local occupations projected to show the most growth over the next ten years are: Computer Software Engineers Applications and Systems, Computer Support Specialists, Medical Records and Health Information Technicians, Social and Human Service Assistants, Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts and Administrators, Mental Health and Substance Abuse Counselors, Medical Assistants, Speech and Language Pathologists, Respiratory Therapists, Pharmacy Technicians, and Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks.

 

State and local labor market information can be accessed on line at:

http://www.labormarketinfo.com/lmi_lib.htm
http://floridawages.labormarketinfo.com